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Rusong: US $ 300 billion deep-water bomb jointly launched by China and the United States

Source: Time: 2020-01-08 20:17:31

Millennium Tongzhou vitality north stream

We have a thousand reasons to do a good job in Sino-US relations, and no one reason to do a bad job. "Simple words of Chairman Xi Jinping contain profound philosophy.
To this day, people in the capital market may still not accurately understand the meaning of the chairman's words.
In the recent stock market, the Xiong'an concept stock has become a bear stock, which is actually a source of uneasiness for investors and has a deep connection with this.
According to the US Department of Commerce, the US-China trade deficit last year was $ 347 billion. According to the statistics of the European Union Statistics Office, the US trade deficit with the EU last year was more than 160 billion U.S. dollars, and the EU trade deficit with China was more than 190 billion U.S. dollars. Because the EU has a trade surplus with the United States, it can export capital in the form of trade to China.
The so-called good relations between China and the United States cannot continue such a huge trade surplus. A small trade surplus can be called an economic problem, and a large trade surplus is essentially war, because it is related to employment and finances, no one is vague, and anyone can understand it.
This requires that most of the trade surplus must be returned to the United States in various ways. If it is avoided that the United States is classified as a currency manipulator (this will cause a large amount of unemployment at home, which is a political issue), only increased imports from the United States ; If the EU does not have a trade surplus with the United States, it must take various measures to reduce the China-EU trade surplus.
Although the adjustment of import and export on some specific items may involve China's trade relations with the EU and other countries outside the United States, once the trade surplus between China and the United States and China and Europe is compressed, serious problems will occur:
Last year, in the direction of China, the United States and China, China achieved a trade surplus of more than 530 billion U.S. dollars. According to customs data, China achieved a US $ 510 billion trade surplus throughout the year, which means that once Trump ’s requirements have severely reduced the US-China, US-Europe trade deficit, China ’s annual trade surplus will be severely reduced. Compression, it is possible to reach one-half or even two-thirds.
The yuan, the currencies of emerging countries, especially the commodity countries (because China reduces its imports of commodities from these countries, affecting their balance of payments) will face tremendous pressure.
In the sensitive period when the United States is discussing the inclusion of the RMB in exchange rate manipulating countries, the stepmother will use a lot of hair tricks to manage wisdom laws, including strengthening the museum to capital flow, strengthening the overseas financing of state-owned enterprises, cracking down on illegal capital flight, and modestly selling some foreigners, etc Wait. However, a necessary measure must be used, that is, the faucet cannot be unscrewed and the water can only be dispensed. Only drip irrigation, where it catches fire, and where it drips a little, will eventually lead to a passive and continuous tightening of liquidity in the economy.
Hong Kong stocks and A-shares. In the past month, there have been many stock market crashes. Many people have seen the collapse of Huishan Dairy and other companies in Hong Kong, but they may not notice that many stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have fallen in just a few minutes. The situation was suppressed to the daily limit (Today's Fangsheng Pharmaceutical is also a typical case. Such pharmaceutical stocks are quickly hit to the daily limit, usually by the institution, and it must be related to the institution's capital chain). This reflects many institutions and companies. The capital chain has broken and liquidity within the economy has seriously deteriorated.
This is the inevitable outcome after the Fed raises interest rates and Trump demands to reduce the US-China, US-European trade deficits, and the central bank ’s release of water.
The big picture is not good by itself, but internal inappropriate policies have given the market another leg!
First, localities are constantly regulating real estate by means of restricted sales. If you are the bank president, what should you do? The decline in the liquidity of assets means that the value of assets is severely falling! At this time, only in the process of mortgage lending, you can raise the interest rate level and reduce the mortgage rate to hedge this risk, which will cause the market's liquidity to tighten further.
The second is Xiong'an. The construction of Xiong'an is difficult to succeed. Although this statement is a little unpleasant today, it is just to express personal views. Today, the liquidity of the entire market is very tight. To start the construction of Xiong'an New District, for many central enterprises, it is necessary to mobilize funds from other regions and other projects to Xiong'an. This administrative order cannot be implemented. As a result, it will cause tighter funding chains in other regions and projects, exacerbating the pressure on the funding chains of institutions and enterprises in these regions. Therefore, the construction of Xiong'an will make other regions especially turn the capital market into Xiong'an. As a result, Xiong'an takes the lead in causing murder in the capital market.
Therefore, in his WeChat group on the weekend, he said that the market did not realize the seriousness of the problems caused by the fundamental changes now. When replying to friends on WeChat on Saturday, he only said three words: not optimistic (stock market ).
To say this today, many people will say "backfire", but the previous article of the author reflects the same point of view ("China and the United States jointly invested 300 billion US dollars in deepwater bombs", "Don't move, it's you!").
At the same time, even if it is not a postmortem, the current murder is just the beginning. The stock market in China's capital market is only a small market value market, and it will be fully displayed in the larger market (real estate, bond market, etc.) in the future. Come out, the stock market is just the vanguard.

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