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m.hg0088.com皇冠 [Read it every day] Reveal the nature of trading performance: homeopathy, moving averages, methods are indispensable!

[Read it every day] Reveal the nature of trading performance: homeopathy, moving averages, methods are indispensable!

Source of information: Time: 2020-02-21 02:38:01

Millennium Tongzhou vitality north stream

Famous teacher's point of view:
Once you enter the market, it is almost impossible to keep your head calm. From this, it can be seen that the main challenge of trading success is still in this person, and the analysis tools do not account for the main part. Keep the tools simple, don't mess.
——Ding Shengyuan (Senior Lecturer, Tsinghua University Combat Futures Class)
one
Today I am talking about the thinking of market trading. Because I feel that the problem of trading ideas may be the most fundamental performance problem, whether it is stock investment or futures investment. If a person's thinking is not clear, whether it is the stock market or the futures market, the money you make is bound to make a profit on the transaction, and it is likely to be brought by chance. why? If I tell him that now, for example, it is good to buy stocks, he bought them, and he made money, what results will it bring? He thinks the market is predictable and he can make money from it. If I say to him after pointing out the mistake, he may have suffered a real loss. So I feel that as an investor, the money made by one or two transactions alone in the market is meaningless. I let him make money. If he does n’t have his own trading ability and trading ideas, then Hurt him.
So I feel that before entering the investment market, investors may first solve a basic trading idea. In the case of "Sun Tzu's Art of War", this is the battle that has not yet been won, and from a trading perspective, before you enter the market, you know how to make money in the market. Do n’t think this is Impossible, in fact I feel it should be possible, and the friends at hand are good, and indeed make money in the market.
He may lose a lot of trades, but the trade results are very, very good. I had a friend in May and June of last year. He had a fund for me to trade. I was very busy at the time. I said so. I would recommend another trader for futures with 1.3 million funds. I had a few days ago. The balance of the account I watched was about 9 million, and many transactions were owed in the middle. Once I lost 300,400,000, and I lost a lot of money in daily transactions, but the transaction results were very good. For such a trader, in fact he is already a trading style is very well formed, when to enter the market, after entering the market, it is not right, maybe the eyes did not blink, and exited after two minutes, regardless of the price of holding He will hold as high as he can.
Therefore, when trading in this way, I feel that his trading ideas have formed a trading habit. In the end, it has become a trading routine and model. In this way, people who want to trade, I want to continue to do so. His Profits should be more and more impressive. He should be such a person who has a clear trading idea and trading method.
two
In fact, from my own understanding of market trading, it should be a dynamic process of a more complex system. Trading forecast is also good, it is only a small part of the overall transaction, a link. So the trading idea is actually written on the picture just now, and it actually involves various issues. From a basic understanding of the market, what kind of market do you hold in your eyes, is there a rule in this market, where is this rule, and when is there an opportunity? You need to have such a set of things.
Second, after you have this set of ideas, after you have this set of knowledge in your head, you can look at the market, you may find your trading opportunities, and then the whole process should be, and I feel that the entire trading process should be part of it. can not be less.
Then I specifically talk about the theoretical models and tools of investment, in fact, what the market views to the methodological proof. The market view is a basic understanding of the trend and contingency of market fluctuations—the market view.
The methodology is that in this trend market, the same trend market is done. The two traders may also trade on time, and I also trade on time, but the positions we enter are not necessarily the same. We hold profitable positions. The time is not necessarily the same. The perception of successful trading on the market and the perception of trends may be universal. Every successful trader may not be able to violate it, and it is impossible for him to succeed. But in grasping the trend, individual traders can have individual components.
Therefore, in fact, the market is not only from the futures market, but also from the stock market. The market seen by ordinary people and normal people is difficult to grasp. Uncertainty, the market goes up and down every day, and finally where it goes Not sure. But there is a hidden regularity. This is a map I designed. In fact, I use my own understanding of the market to represent such a map. If the market is a large circle outside, it is very complicated. I only understand what is inside the market. Small circle, if the market is in this state, market transactions can be grasped, I cannot grasp the piece outside the circle. If I trade in the circle, I'm fighting with advantages and certainty. If the market is not in this range today, then I have to bet, then I have to rely on luck. I will lose more if I bet more. So you can limit the trading scope to a certain trading opportunity, and the probability of success will increase greatly.
Either a trained trader or an investor, he should be able to see from the market, just like a person who is not color blind can see a regular pattern. For most investors, it should be to see Markets are random. He can't find the relative, certain trading opportunities, or certain regularity from the randomness of the market, and use it to make money.
Therefore, I want to be the basic attitude of an investor, whether it is securities or futures, do not participate in transactions that you do not understand, the market, the transactions, the stocks, the futures, both I should first consider which opportunities I can grasp and which opportunities I cannot grasp. If the definition of this problem is not clear, of course, it is difficult to define this problem. If you have no market experience, you are not clear. How to have a definition before entering the market is difficult, but it is difficult to solve it. What about trading? You base your transaction on a very fragile basis, and the probability of such a transaction being successful is very, very low.
Photo Credit: Tsinghua Combat Futures Class by Teacher Ding Shengyuan
Three
Different traders should say that their views on the market are different. Some people can see the law, some people can't see it, some people know when the risk planning is best, some people, the Most people may not know that this problem must be solved as a successful trader.
This is from an abstract perspective, you have to find a research market and grasp the laws in it. Well, grasp the law. In fact, this is an abstract. In fact, if you really want to grasp the law, you may still need a trading model or a tool. The market has a trend and a law, so I must have a corresponding Models and tools to achieve it. I compare trading models and tools. I liken them to bridges and boats crossing the river. Every trader, no matter a trader, or an investor, there should be such a trading tool. In this case, you have both There are also quantitative and stereotyped points, macros and details, which have both a large market view and operability.
▌Homeopathy
Then I will talk about the trading models used by many investors in daily trading. How do they find entry opportunities and the probability of success of entry opportunities? Let me talk about this problem.
Generally speaking, futures trading is homeopathic trading and is definitely the first place. On the basis of homeopathic trading, one is the key point breakthrough method. For a period of time, the market ’s highs and lows have broken, and you go in, because this is generally the case. If the market continues to break through the highs or lows for several months, this market trend will often continue. This probability will be relatively high, the first one will fail this one, but in the case of a short market, if you strictly follow this, the probability of success is still relatively high. Do n’t look at the price fluctuations here, it seems like a short paragraph, in fact, as long as you eat and live in this little section, the accumulated profit returns are also very rich.
This kind of transaction is a regular thing that I personally use, of course, I still use other transaction models.
For example, this is a chart from a long time ago, but this is very clear. It has been oscillating for several months without major fluctuations, and then one day when it suddenly broke the red line of the previous high point, this may be a good deal. Opportunity. Generally speaking, this breakthrough is of great significance. Later, it may indeed be good, and the return is also good.
▌55 day moving average method
The second is my own 55-point moving average trading method. How does this work? First of all, determine whether the overall trend of the market is up or down. After this trend is up or down, which day should I go in? The principle is that the long market cannot be short and the short time cannot be long. If the current market is a long market, then after the market price angle is adjusted back, we will not operate, I do not move, I look at it, if it falls below the 55-day moving average, then I will not go short, and one day will stop Yes, I stopped the 55-day moving average. I feel that once this transaction is successful, the return rate is very high.
把握 Grasp of the market paradox
The other is the domestic futures market, which has a relatively closed side, or Chicago, and may not be completely consistent with the fluctuations of foreign markets. China's commodity prices are generally subject to the overall trend of global futures, but China's futures market has its own characteristics. In short, the most recent gold futures, I remember the day when it was listed on January 9, the opening price was 230 yuan per gram. At that time, the price of gold in New York was more than 900 US dollars. At that time, we were 230, but it fell on that day. As a result, the international gold price rose from 900 to more than 1,000, and then the people who made gold in our country, I guess, are at a loss. These two are divergent to some extent. I used to make more money once or twice, but then I felt wrong doing it. This is a habit. When the behavior that should occur in a market does not occur, it is likely to have the opposite behavior. If you go up, you go up a little, if you go up a little, you do n’t go up. If one day goes down, you must slump. This is actually a certain degree of divergence between internal and external prices, and you can conclude that there will be problems with the average price in the domestic market. Why does the price of gold in the domestic market deviate from the international market? From the explanation of the gold exchange structure of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, who will trade in the domestic gold market? Who makes the deal? Whether it is Chinese gold, Shandong gold is all a fresh produce company that produces gold. He bought a large amount of hedging. He dug gold and sold it out. From the perspective of their production and operation, this behavior is very reasonable. Because his bid price may be relatively low, whether it is sold at 220 or 225, it may not matter to him. But as a speculator, you sell 220 and sell 225 are two completely different things. After you sell 220, you have to close out the position after 225. As an economic hedging company, he certainly does not need to do this.
Gold on the one hand is such a large spot enterprise, and on the other hand it is a small and medium-sized producer who has turned over the stock for many years. Small and medium-sized producers have characteristics of making futures, positions are heavy, and the way of stocks to make futures is relatively daring, and as soon as the position is opened, it is relatively large. The second is that in fact, their mental capacity is not enough. In this case, in the asymmetric market, the price of gold and the international market will inevitably be distorted.
▌ Find the method that suits you
I think as an investor, you must first have an understanding of the market trend; secondly, when you trade with the trend, you also have a corresponding set of quantitative trading models and trading tools. You have this market trend and a quantitative trading model, which actually limits your kind of messy speculation. Because the model signal is not available, you cannot operate it. The model signal will not be available every day, so every investor first enters the futures, and the same is true for securities. First, you must establish a set of theory and trend trading theory and In the trading model, you can also summarize some regular features by yourself. If there is a certain situation, I will enter the market again. This will solve the problem of market understanding and market entry.
With that in mind, what should investors do? May be waiting for trading opportunities.
After you have a market trading model in your mind, you can distinguish what is a trading opportunity and what is not a trading opportunity. You look at the market yourself, you look at it and you can see the trading opportunities coming? Trading opportunities are, first of all, a question of standards. There is no standard. In fact, in your eyes, there is no difference between the market today and tomorrow.
Therefore, with this set of theoretical tool models, investors should also be clear about what is their own trading opportunity and what is the trading opportunity of others.
What to look at? Many people stare at the stock every day. I feel that there are always some questions. I don't know what they are looking at, or what can they see in the market? This is the same as fishing. When you fish, you put the fishing line down. There are fish floating on the water below. Many fish ponds have a lot of fish. Many people who fish may feel that there are many fish in this fish pond. Look at the water. Fish, but in fact, as a fisherman, no matter how many fish there are in the water, it has nothing to do with you. In fact, what really matters to you is that you should stare at the fish drift, your fish drift, and the fish bit. Your fish floats, you may be able to catch this fish. There are all kinds of fluctuations in the market, but the power of this fluctuation is not yours, you can only watch. A signal has occurred in your trading model or trading system. This may be your trading opportunity.
So I ca n’t say that I ’m so up today. I ’m not there. The market is changing every day. There are more than 2,000 stocks in the market. There are more than 10 varieties. There are daily limit and limit plates. If you look at this good opportunity, you simply There is no standard. You don't see anything when you look at it. You look tired and stare nervously at unrelated things. For example, some people look at time-sharing charts, which is very, very unreliable. It ’s fascinating. If you look at this crude oil, a time-sharing chart of crude oil prices on the international market, can you see a pattern from this? Seeing a chance to seize it? This is very, very difficult. Micro-market positioning is very difficult. If you use this as a basis for trading, who will not lose money? This is my own experience.
Like this thing, if you simply draw a few lines on this chart, this line is an important key figure. If you make this model, in fact, you can't make many transactions a year, and you don't have to stare at the market every day. Tired, but the probability of your trading success increases greatly, you stare at the disk all day, the possibility of you losing money is very high, the probability of success is very small.
It ’s okay to have a model, and then discover trading opportunities, your entry, you ca n’t make money without entering the market, so when you enter the market, you have to consider a few issues. If you personally do this, it ’s because you do a trading career. After too long, this kind of thing is relatively proficient. When I first entered the market, this time the signal came, and the reliability of this signal, I ranked in my own mode. According to different signal quality, different investment funds are formulated. If one of the important signals is very important, then I may be very big. I will go in first. What should I do when I go in for the first time? Either win or lose, and prove your judgment is right or wrong. An unfavorable situation, my transaction processing is still good, the moment you enter the market, I immediately a reverse transaction order, knowing that a certain point and then run, I imagine. So if the situation of a certain transaction is not good, you need to consider it if you don't need to stare at yourself. There are trading children who will control the risk of this transaction.
The fundamental principle of futures trading is to make less losses, and to make as much profit as possible when you live.
▌How to overweight
Therefore, the problem of overweight is very important. Once a certain transaction is profitable, a friend from outside just said that he ca n’t hold it a little, and he wo n’t be able to close the position for a while after making money. It is true that the market is like this. In the future, if it is not closed, and then come back, it will be gone. However, from the perspective of the overall transaction, you want to make a lot of money in this transaction, and the quality of the signal is very good. If it is from my personal transaction, then come back, I do n’t want this money, because Money doesn't make sense to me. For example, I made 300 points for 200 lots and 60,000 yuan. Do you say that I close my position? I originally did n’t want this 60,000 yuan. For example, if I was optimistic about 100 points and 200 points, it would not make sense to close the position and get it in my pocket if it was 300 points.
Instead, I should add 100 lots. The original 200 lots, 100 lots and 300 lots. If this transaction is done right, it will suddenly become 150 points or 200 points, at least 100 points or more, 100 points is 300 hands. 300,000, when you lose money, you lose 30,000. In short, through this successful profitable transaction, minus the lossy transaction, your general ledger may be successful in the end, so this plus The problem, in fact, I think it is a relatively smart way to keep your value and make a lot of money when you make money. The probability of really relying on a little money is still relatively small. Without significant profits, the probability of success of this trading account is relatively small.
Actually, there is also this problem after the overweight. It cannot be added after the overweight. Originally, the profitable transaction has lost money. As a trader, you should probably accept it with confidence. The trading market is like this. After you get the overweight, Every transaction listens to you? The market is not yours. So losing trades should be accepted naturally.
After overweighting, there are still three questions. What should I do to consider making money? Sometimes the market operates very fast, and sometimes the transactions are bought. Within a few minutes, 70 or 80 points come out. At this time, I don't care about the long-term trend and size of the future. Sometimes, it's time to flatten out. In a very short period of time, when I get a great return, I want to get my profit right away. It doesn't matter that I rise to the sky behind the market, nor am I. Say how much money this transaction must make today, and this transaction is never done. This transaction was realized, and your profit increase has nothing to do with me, and I restarted to do my trading opportunities. At this time, don't talk about the theory, long-term trading, short-term trading, long-term profit, the nerd view. I personally think so, of course, if you really trade long-term, maybe you are right.
▌ develop your own behavior pattern
In the transaction, it is necessary to know the unity of action and knowledge. The problem of unity of knowledge and action may still be difficult. It is reasonable to say that trading is a psychological game to some extent. I want to make a futures analogy. Why is it so difficult to make futures? For example, if you give you a certain balance beam on the ground, it is very narrow, and you may walk back and forth on it without any problems. If you lift this balance beam to a height of 50 meters and let you walk from one end to the other, you may not be able to climb, let alone go. Couldn't you walk? Of course not. In fact, your mind has completely controlled your thinking and behavior. It may be difficult to make futures here, because you are facing the temptation of the market, facing the fear and panic of the market crash, and you are facing the chance of the market going back and forth. Downward adjustment, your psychological pressure is very great.
Therefore, in this capricious market, you must maintain a rational behavior model. You should enter the market when you enter the market. The risk control is the risk control. You have lost three times in a row. This time is not smooth. Not so. Easy. Therefore, the rational behavior in the entire futures trading is actually an important guarantee for successful trading, but this thing is very, very difficult. Like the one I just mentioned, so many investors and futures traders may be because of psychological factors.
Of course, what I said earlier is part of the entire transaction, and there may be inadequate research. There may be some research, but it cannot be done in actual operation. You should not dare to enter the market, and you should not dare to hold it. When controlling risk, he may not be able to control it. For various reasons, everything will happen in futures market transactions. Therefore, the behavior of many speculators is capricious, and there is no stable and rational behavior model. Therefore, the psychological and behavioral instability of investors is not entirely consistent with the overall trading thinking, which leads to their miserable trading results. To some extent, the fate of this investment may determine his fate of failure as soon as he enters the market. Therefore, investors may say that a truly mature investor should have some obvious and clear trading routines, styles, and his behavior.
Source: Huixin Asset Management | Transaction House

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