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hg22488.com China's North Korea collapse prevention plan: worried about influx of refugees, 10 times larger than Europe

China's North Korea collapse prevention plan: worried about influx of refugees, 10 times larger than Europe

Source: Time: 2020-01-07 18:08:37

Millennium Tongzhou vitality north stream

Keywords: North Korea nuclear issue
Source: North Korea Tong3 WeChat 2017-04-14 11:38:07
Author: North Korea brother
Just think: The two Gulf Wars, the Libyan War, the Syrian War, and the Afghan War. Before the war, most experts thought that the United States was unlikely to wage a war, and the results were miscalculated. Wars are often not initially intended by both parties, but they often result from misjudgement of the current situation and misjudgement by both parties.
Increasingly clear signs indicate that China's policy toward the DPRK is coming out of the traditional understanding of "China-North Korea blood friendship" and "North Korea is China's geo-barrier", turning to realist diplomacy between normal countries, The regime shifted to crisis management in response to emergencies such as the collapse of the North Korean regime.
Will it fight this time?
This is a question that many people ask North Korea. North Korea's judgment is that war has never been so close as it is today, but it will take time to begin war.
The 15th is the 105th anniversary of North Korea ’s largest festival, the Sun Festival, and the anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung. North Korea will hold an unprecedented parade and mass parade in which it will swear allegiance to Kim Jong-un ’s political power.
On April 13, the United States specifically told the North Korean website "38 North" that after analyzing the satellite photos of the Fengxili nuclear test site, it was found that the North Korean nuclear test site was "ready".
"38 North" states that North Korea ’s activities at the entrance to the northern tunnel of the nuclear test site continued, new movements in the main support headquarters were observed, and personnel around the command and control post were active.
Satellite photos show that there are small vehicles and trailers near the entrance of the northern tunnel. The drainage operation has slowed down in the past 10 days. There are also small trailers on the way to the southern tunnel.
At the same time, it was observed that in the main support headquarters, there were 11 equipment-conveying platforms and signs of movement of personnel covered by tarpaulins. There were no special movements at other facilities such as the western entrance. In areas such as command and control posts and outposts, Signs of personnel activity were captured.
Based on the above judgment, the 6th North Korean nuclear test is approaching. It is predicted that North Korea will conduct nuclear tests around the solar festival.
This is obviously a response to the fierce response from the international community, such as China and the United States. According to the plan, the focus of North Korea ’s nuclear guidance program this year was on intercontinental missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, but now it is necessary to continue to test nuclear bombs, which is mocking the international community.
It can be foreseen that North Korea will intensify its crimes and fight against the situation. China and the United States will intensify sanctions without suspense, and military strike options will be officially included in the agenda.
First, the United States will abduct trade means, press China to push China to the front line of sanctions against North Korea, and exhaust all kinds of sanctions.
China is expected to sacrifice sanctions for killing: to disrupt oil supply to North Korea, and even the left-hand Global Times suggested that "if North Korea crosses the bottom line of the sixth nuclear test, China can stop North Korea's crude oil supply."
China controls almost 100% of North Korea's oil supply and has become the real lifeblood of North Korea. Previously, China's official media and scholars opposed the inclusion of the oil ban in sanctions because it could lead to the collapse of the North Korean system.
In 2014, China urgently needed to invite Park Geun-hye to participate in a military parade, disrupting North Korea ’s oil supply for 8 months, North Korea ’s reserve oil tank ran dry, and the military commander could only ride a bicycle, and the plane stopped military training for nearly a year.
The oil ban on North Korea also means a complete break between China and North Korea, and China's "double-track" and "double-suspend" peninsula denuclearization has been completely exhausted. The United States can also use this to stop the mouths of China and other countries advocating peace talks to go nuclear, and military strikes can gain moral support.
Of course, the United States will not innocently assume that China ’s peace talks will work, and military preparations will surely proceed in parallel. The USS Reagan and Trump ’s invincible fleet will continue to gather in the Korean peninsula. The military strength reached the maximum: 3 aircraft carrier strike groups, fully equipped to launch a comprehensive war.
While preparing for war, the United States will also increase the three-dimensional warfare on cyber warfare and infiltration of public opinion in North Korea. Even North Korea ’s internal LAN is not without feasibility; the United States has also opened a frequency broadcast that North Korea can receive and announce The fact that the North Korean soldiers are armed and enslaved.
In addition, the biggest losses in the war against Korea may be South Korea and Japan. The United States needs to discuss with South Korea and Japan in advance about hedging risk plans, and it takes time to persuade South Korea and Japan to cooperate in the fight. At present, South Korea is not ready and Japan has a strong desire to participate .
Therefore, North Korea judged that the war would not break out within a month. But the war has never been so close and getting closer. Don't be optimistic.
War is always an extreme situation when the country is irreconcilable, and it is difficult to predict accurately based on experience. Just think: The two Gulf Wars, the Libyan War, the Syrian War, and the Afghan War. Before the war, most experts thought that the United States was unlikely to wage a war, and the results were miscalculated.
Wars are often not initially intended by both parties, but they often result from misjudgement of the current situation and misjudgement by both parties.
Kim Jong-un ’s power stems from hereditary totalitarianism. After more than 70 years of ignorance and anti-intellect, it is doubtful whether the elite has a sober judgment of the current situation and whether it has a healthy delivery mechanism.
Kim Jong-un himself is also susceptible to falling into the dictator's delusion, making unrealistic estimates of his ability to defend against the outside world. In history, some dictators even dreamed of living two hundred years old without knowing it. This point is reflected in Saddam and Gaddafi.
Trump has just launched an air attack on Syria. The results have exceeded expectations. He earned money and lost face. Trump immersed in the joy of Syrian air attacks is very likely to grab medicine and solve the North Korean problem.
The Korean brother reminded: Don't overestimate the loyalty and spontaneous mobilization ability of North Korean gangsters and officials. After the United States' devastating attack on North Korean core leaders and communication networks, it is doubtful that North Korean grassroots forces can effectively organize and swear by resistance. The United States also does not need to blow up every military facility or unit in North Korea, so it is a bit ridiculous to question how many Tomahawk missiles and how many people will be killed by the United States and South Korea.
By the same token, don't overestimate the military value of North Korean artillery and tunnels when power, communications, transportation, and the core of command are destroyed, and air control and sea control are completely lost. In fact, the wars waged and participated by the United States after the Cold War were, without exception, military overruns. Experts expected that the blockade and street fighting did not occur at all.
It should be noted that the United States is supremacy of pragmatism. Once it is judged that it is under nuclear threat, it will not be kidnapped by small countries. Therefore, the United States will launch a war based on its own assessment, and will not consider South Korea's timid war. After the controlled war, it was not difficult to convince South Korea.
North Korea believes that the rapid military victory of the United States against North Korea is a high probability event, and all the problems that everyone can imagine may not be a problem. However, the controllability of the war is relatively poor, and I am afraid of the uncontrollable black swan: for example, Kim Jong-un is extremely vicious, how to get nuclear material to the border to detonate, lose, and create pollution; what to do if nuclear material is lost? Arrangement? How to revitalize North Korea's post-war economy? Does the United States withdraw from the peninsula or continue to exist? How can relations with China be balanced?
Will China send troops to take part in the war?
North Korea thinks: No. Denuclearization of North Korea is China ’s bottom line. China does not have the possibility to send troops to aid North Korea in resisting the United States. Will it join the United States to invade North Korea and take the initiative to remove North Korea ’s nuclear weapons? No, the uncertainty of the war is very strong. In the event of an unpredictable conflict, it is easy to limit it to being passive.
North Korea is convinced that even if the United States adopts military means to solve the Korean issue and the peninsula forms a unified state, even if China does not participate in the war, China's influence and space on the peninsula will only strengthen and not weaken. This is determined by history and economic dependence.
China's biggest sticking point: fear of refugee influx
Increasingly clear signs indicate that China's policy toward the DPRK is coming out of the traditional understanding of "China-North Korea blood friendship" and "North Korea is China's geo-barrier", turning to realist diplomacy between normal countries, The regime shifted to crisis management in response to emergencies such as the collapse of the North Korean regime.
The biggest sticking point for China is its concern about the incalculable security consequences and the influx of refugees after the collapse of the North Korean regime.
The United States "Quartz" magazine claims that the peninsula crisis is a matter that affects Northeast Asia as a whole, but the focus is still on China. The West cares most about North Korea ’s nuclear weapons, while China is more concerned about the fate of 25 million North Koreans, worried about a humanitarian disaster in North Korea, and a flood of refugees.
According to foreign news reports, in the summer of 2015, the Chinese People's Liberation Army formulated an internal document. Military experts envisioned that North Korea might fall into a crisis of system collapse and are studying emergency response programs such as increased surveillance on the China-DPRK border and the establishment of refugee camps.
The above documents show that crisis management has also been formally launched in the military to deal with emergencies such as the collapse of North Korea, and it is rare for the Chinese military to discuss such situations.
The document did not specify the name of the country of North Korea, but referred to "China's northeast neighbor", "hereditary countries" and so on. The document pointed out that there may be situations where foreign forces can not control the domestic situation and the inflow of troops from border areas, and pointed out that in this case, the border around the border may become a base for residual forces such as refugees and retreats.
In the event of an emergency, China will send "reconnaissance teams" to collect information in the border areas, "inspection teams" to investigate the identity of North Koreans who have flooded into China, "blockade teams" to prevent dangerous people from entering China, and attacks on hostile forces "Firepower team" and so on.
Once refugees inflow, China plans to set up 1,500-person camps in counties around the border to protect the personal safety of important figures in the political and military circles. At the same time, important figures will be transferred to "monitoring battalions" to avoid contact with North Korean forces or direct military operations.
In addition, considering that the United States and other "military powers" have entered China's territory under the pretext of counter-terrorism, China will block its borders and cut off the information network through means such as cyber attacks if diplomatic negotiations cannot solve the problem.
Among the countries that are likely to trigger a border crisis, the document also refers to Japan as "hope to become a 'normal country'."
10 times more refugees in Europe
If you want to understand why China is worried about North Korean refugees, just look at the EU's response to Syrian refugees and multiply the number of refugees by 10.
From January to July 2015, 340,000 refugees flooded into Europe, which almost stopped.
Unlike European refugees, who carry suitcases, tents, iPhones, MP3s, and luggage all the time, taking selfies from time to time is different from the North Korean refugees who may come in the future without even a bowl.
South Korean scholars have predicted the scale and route of North Korean residents' flight under the collapse of the regime. Among them, there are about 470,000 refugees who fled to China across borders, ranking first among countries.
Korean scholars refer to the precedents of the Korean War in 1950 and the reunification of Germany in 1990, and start with the composition and geographic characteristics of North Korea to study and judge the number of North Korean refugees.
According to research, as of October 1990, the official reunification of East Germany to West Germany reached 430,000, accounting for 2.6% of the total population of East Germany. At that time, the economic gap between East and West was not large. Judging from the current economic gap between North Korea and South Korea, the rate of refugees when North Korea collapses is higher than on the eve of German reunification.
As for the refugees generated during the Korean War, it can be roughly divided into two parts. In the first month after the outbreak of the war on June 25, 1950, the first wave of refugees was generated, mainly by Korean residents fleeing south in places such as Seoul (now Seoul). From the end of 1950 to the beginning of 1951, the "United Nations Army" led by the U.S. Army retreated to the south of the "38th Front" under the joint attack of the Chinese People's Volunteers and the Korean People's Army. In the process, a second wave of refugees was generated. According to statistics, about 890,000 Korean refugees who are willing to stay in the north fled to South Korea, which is about 9% of the total population of North Korea before the war (9.5 million). Most of these people chose to flee to relatively safe South Korea because of avoiding US air strikes or direct engagement between the two armies.
To predict the number of people fleeing, domestic conditions in North Korea need to be considered. North Korea conducts a composition survey of its residents to isolate people at the source that may endanger system stability.
According to the information held by South Korea, based on the composition survey, North Korea divided all nationals into 51 classes of 3 classes. This type of classification determines the differences in citizenship in school, employment, food, clothing, housing, etc. Among the three classes, 5.94 million people (the "dominant class") (also known as the "dominant class") account for 28% of the total population, 9.54 million (45%) the "shake class" (also known as the "basic class"), and " The "hostile class" (also known as the "complex layer") was 5.73 million (27%).
The "hostile class" is the person most interested in escaping because he cannot benefit from the current system of North Korea. Except for the old, the weak, the disabled and their families, there are about 3.5 million people in the "hostile class". However, considering the tight control of the escape route by the DPRK, not everyone dares to take risks.
South Korea predicts that about 700,000 people (20% of the 3.5 million "hostile class") in North Korea will resolutely "broke the North." A few years ago, the current population of North Korea submitted to the UN Food Programme was 24 million. Except for nearly 6 million North Korean "core classes" will not escape during the great changes, 700,000 determined escapees account for 3% of the total population. .
The escape routes of North Korean refugees do not all run through the border or "military demarcation line", because 70% of North Korea is mountainous, with an average altitude of 440 meters, and roads and railways can only be established between mountains. Therefore, if North Koreans want to flee to Northeast China or South Korea to the south of the "military demarcation line", they can only use roads and railways connecting the north and the south.
There are highways and railways in western, central and eastern Korea. In the west, there is the No. 1 highway from Seoul to Xinyiju, the Pingyang expressway constructed from Pyongyang to Kaesong after the 1953 truce, and the railway has the Jingyi line from Seoul to Xinyiju. In the central part, there is the No. 3 road from Yeongguk-do to Guksan in Gyeonggi Province, and No. 43 to Yeok-eup in Yeong-gu, and the Gyeongwon line from Seoul to Wonsan. In the east, there is Highway 7 from Gangneung to Yuanshan, Highway 31 from Lindu to Xinshanshan, and the railway has the Tokai Line.
According to the North Korean and Korean agreements, Highway 1 in the west, Jingyi Line Railway, and Highway 7 in the east are all connected. When North Korea collapses, North Korean refugees are likely to use the above roads and railways to escape, and those who want to escape through these paths must be nearby residents.
Therefore, the residents of North Korea ’s Yellow Sea, who live near the military demarcation line, will cross the military demarcation line and go south instead of fleeing to China via Pyongyang, Cijiang Road, and Yalu River. Many people fleeing to China via the Yalu River are also residents of North Korea's North Pyeongan, Liangjiang Road, Cijiang Road, and North Hamgyong Road living on the North Korean-Chinese border.
Depending on North Korea's terrain, North Korean residents can escape by land and sea.
The land route includes fleeing to the borders of China, Russia, and Russia, crossing the military demarcation line, and entering Korea.
Sea routes include those who fled to Japan and South Korea by sea. The selection of North Koreans who fled to Japan by sea is limited to fresh overseas Japanese and their relatives in Japan and South Korea and their relatives who have been returned to North Korea in the past few decades. May be residents of the east and west coasts of North Korea.
It is speculated that if the "hostile class" of North Korea's Liudaoyi city north of the Pingyuan Expressway is tentatively designated as refugees who may flee to China, the number will be about 470,000. When the North Korean government's control was weak, about 90,000 people fled, and when the control failed, the remaining 380,000 people would flee.
North Koreans who fled to South Korea across the military demarcation line mainly came from the "hostile class" living in Sandaoyi City, south of the Pingyuan Expressway, with about 200,000 people. The North Korean refugees who escaped the sea mainly depended on the transport capacity of their fishing vessels. It is estimated that 11,000 refugees fled from the Yellow Sea to China or South Korea using 270 fishing boats, and about 7,600 people fled from the Sea of Japan to South Korea or Japan using 190 fishing boats.
Based on the above estimates, when North Korea collapsed, 470,000 of the 700,000 refugees fled to China, 9,000 fled to Russia, 3,600 fled to Japan, and 200,000 fled to South Korea across the land military demarcation line. There are 15,000 in South Korea. For China and South Korea, the influx of refugees of this size is undoubtedly a disaster.
In addition, Chinese scholars are more worried that when external pressure is great, North Korea may counter sanctions, turn the pressure on China, drive millions of refugees to China, and create disaster for China.
This is based on the historical judgment of the Sino-Vietnamese border. In order to alleviate domestic pressure, Vietnam has driven 500,000 refugees to China. Since then, these 500,000 refugees have given birth, lived, and worked, which has put a lot of pressure on China.
Editor-in-chief: Huang Nan
China's North Korea collapse prevention plan: worried about influx of refugees, 10 times larger than Europe
Keywords: North Korea nuclear issue
Source: North Korea Tong3 WeChat 2017-04-14 11:38:07
Author: North Korea brother
Just think: The two Gulf Wars, the Libyan War, the Syrian War, and the Afghan War. Before the war, most experts thought that the United States was unlikely to wage a war, and the results were miscalculated. Wars are often not initially intended by both parties, but they often result from misjudgement of the current situation and misjudgement by both parties.
Increasingly clear signs indicate that China's policy toward the DPRK is coming out of the traditional understanding of "China-North Korea blood friendship" and "North Korea is China's geo-barrier", turning to realist diplomacy between normal countries, The regime shifted to crisis management in response to emergencies such as the collapse of the North Korean regime.
Will it fight this time?
This is a question that many people ask North Korea. North Korea's judgment is that war has never been so close as it is today, but it will take time to begin war.
The 15th is the 105th anniversary of North Korea ’s largest festival, the Sun Festival, and the anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung. North Korea will hold an unprecedented parade and mass parade in which it will swear allegiance to Kim Jong-un ’s political power.
On April 13, the United States specifically told the North Korean website "38 North" that after analyzing the satellite photos of the Fengxili nuclear test site, it was found that the North Korean nuclear test site was "ready".
"38 North" states that North Korea ’s activities at the entrance to the northern tunnel of the nuclear test site continued, new movements in the main support headquarters were observed, and personnel around the command and control post were active.
Satellite photos show that there are small vehicles and trailers near the entrance of the northern tunnel. The drainage operation has slowed down in the past 10 days. There are also small trailers on the way to the southern tunnel.
At the same time, it was observed that in the main support headquarters, there were 11 equipment-conveying platforms and signs of movement of personnel covered by tarpaulins. There were no special movements at other facilities such as the western entrance. In areas such as command and control posts and outposts, Signs of personnel activity were captured.
Based on the above judgment, the 6th North Korean nuclear test is approaching. It is predicted that North Korea will conduct nuclear tests around the solar festival.
This is obviously a response to the fierce response from the international community, such as China and the United States. According to the plan, the focus of North Korea ’s nuclear guidance program this year was on intercontinental missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, but now it is necessary to continue to test nuclear bombs, which is mocking the international community.
It can be foreseen that North Korea will intensify its crimes and fight against the situation. China and the United States will intensify sanctions without suspense, and military strike options will be officially included in the agenda.
First, the United States will abduct trade means, press China to push China to the front line of sanctions against North Korea, and exhaust all kinds of sanctions.
China is expected to sacrifice sanctions for killing: to disrupt oil supply to North Korea, and even the left-hand Global Times suggested that "if North Korea crosses the bottom line of the sixth nuclear test, China can stop North Korea's crude oil supply."
China controls almost 100% of North Korea's oil supply and has become the real lifeblood of North Korea. Previously, China's official media and scholars opposed the inclusion of the oil ban in sanctions because it could lead to the collapse of the North Korean system.
In 2014, China urgently needed to invite Park Geun-hye to participate in a military parade, disrupting North Korea ’s oil supply for 8 months, North Korea ’s reserve oil tank ran dry, and the military commander could only ride a bicycle, and the plane stopped military training for nearly a year.
The oil ban on North Korea also means a complete break between China and North Korea, and China's "double-track" and "double-suspend" peninsula denuclearization has been completely exhausted. The United States can also use this to stop the mouths of China and other countries advocating peace talks to go nuclear, and military strikes can gain moral support.
Of course, the United States will not innocently assume that China ’s peace talks will work, and military preparations will surely proceed in parallel. The USS Reagan and Trump ’s invincible fleet will continue to gather in the Korean peninsula. The military strength reached the maximum: 3 aircraft carrier strike groups, fully equipped to launch a comprehensive war.
While preparing for war, the United States will also increase the three-dimensional warfare on cyber warfare and infiltration of public opinion in North Korea. Even North Korea ’s internal LAN is not without feasibility; the United States has also opened a frequency broadcast that North Korea can receive and announce The fact that the North Korean soldiers are armed and enslaved.
In addition, the biggest losses in the war against Korea may be South Korea and Japan. The United States needs to discuss with South Korea and Japan in advance about hedging risk plans, and it takes time to persuade South Korea and Japan to cooperate in the fight. At present, South Korea is not ready and Japan has a strong desire to participate in the war. .
Therefore, North Korea judged that the war would not break out within a month. But the war has never been so close and getting closer. Don't be optimistic.
War is always an extreme situation when the country is irreconcilable, and it is difficult to predict accurately based on experience. Just think: The two Gulf Wars, the Libyan War, the Syrian War, and the Afghan War. Before the war, most experts thought that the United States was unlikely to wage a war, and the results were miscalculated.
Wars are often not initially intended by both parties, but they often result from misjudgement of the current situation and misjudgement by both parties.
Kim Jong-un ’s power stems from hereditary totalitarianism. After more than 70 years of ignorance and anti-intellect, it is doubtful whether the elite has a sober judgment of the current situation and whether it has a healthy delivery mechanism.
Kim Jong-un himself is also susceptible to falling into the dictator's delusion, making unrealistic estimates of his ability to defend against the outside world. In history, some dictators even dreamed of living two hundred years old without knowing it. This point is reflected in Saddam and Gaddafi.
Trump has just launched an air attack on Syria. The results have exceeded expectations. He earned money and lost face. Trump immersed in the joy of Syrian air attacks is very likely to grab medicine and solve the North Korean problem.
The Korean brother reminded: Don't overestimate the loyalty and spontaneous mobilization ability of North Korean gangsters and officials. After the United States' devastating attack on North Korean core leaders and communication networks, it is doubtful that North Korean grassroots forces can effectively organize and swear by resistance. The United States also does not need to blow up every military facility or unit in North Korea, so it is a bit ridiculous to question how many Tomahawk missiles and how many people will be killed by the United States and South Korea.
By the same token, don't overestimate the military value of North Korean artillery and tunnels when power, communications, transportation, and the core of command are destroyed, and air control and sea control are completely lost. In fact, the wars waged and participated by the United States after the Cold War were, without exception, military overruns. Experts expected that the blockade and street fighting did not occur at all.
It should be noted that the United States is supremacy of pragmatism. Once it is judged that it is under nuclear threat, it will not be kidnapped by small countries. Therefore, the United States will launch a war based on its own assessment, and will not consider South Korea's timid war. After the controlled war, it was not difficult to convince South Korea.
North Korea believes that the rapid military victory of the United States against North Korea is a high probability event, and all the problems that everyone can imagine may not be a problem. However, the controllability of the war is relatively poor, and I am afraid of the uncontrollable black swan: for example, Kim Jong-un is extremely vicious, how to get nuclear material to the border to detonate, lose, and create pollution; what to do if nuclear material is lost? How to arrange North Korean post-war politics Arrangement? How to revitalize North Korea's post-war economy? Does the United States withdraw from the peninsula or continue to exist? How can relations with China be balanced?
Will China send troops to take part in the war?
North Korea thinks: No. Denuclearization of North Korea is China ’s bottom line. China does not have the possibility to send troops to aid North Korea in resisting the United States. Will it join the United States to invade North Korea and take the initiative to remove North Korea ’s nuclear weapons? No, the uncertainty of the war is very strong. In the event of an unpredictable conflict, it is easy to limit it to being passive.
North Korea is convinced that even if the United States adopts military means to solve the Korean issue and the peninsula forms a unified state, even if China does not participate in the war, China's influence and space on the peninsula will only strengthen and not weaken. This is determined by history and economic dependence.
China's biggest sticking point: fear of refugee influx
Increasingly clear signs indicate that China's policy toward the DPRK is coming out of the traditional understanding of "China-North Korea blood friendship" and "North Korea is China's geo-barrier", turning to realist diplomacy between normal countries, The regime shifted to crisis management in response to emergencies such as the collapse of the North Korean regime.
The biggest sticking point for China is its concern about the incalculable security consequences and the influx of refugees after the collapse of the North Korean regime.
The United States "Quartz" magazine claims that the peninsula crisis is a matter that affects Northeast Asia as a whole, but the focus is still on China. The West cares most about North Korea ’s nuclear weapons, while China is more concerned about the fate of 25 million North Koreans, worried about a humanitarian disaster in North Korea, and a flood of refugees.
According to foreign news reports, in the summer of 2015, the Chinese People's Liberation Army formulated an internal document. Military experts envisioned that North Korea might fall into a crisis of system collapse and are studying emergency response programs such as increased surveillance on the China-DPRK border and the establishment of refugee camps.
The above documents show that crisis management has also been formally launched in the military to deal with emergencies such as the collapse of North Korea, and it is rare for the Chinese military to discuss such situations.
The document did not specify the name of the country of North Korea, but referred to "China's northeast neighbor", "hereditary countries" and so on. The document pointed out that there may be situations where foreign forces can not control the domestic situation and the inflow of troops from border areas, and pointed out that in this case, the border around the border may become a base for residual forces such as refugees and retreats.
In the event of an emergency, China will send "reconnaissance teams" to collect information in the border areas, "inspection teams" to investigate the identity of North Koreans who have flooded into China, "blockade teams" to prevent dangerous people from entering China, and attacks on hostile forces "Firepower team" and so on.
Once refugees inflow, China plans to set up 1,500-person camps in counties around the border to protect the personal safety of important figures in the political and military circles. At the same time, important figures will be transferred to "monitoring battalions" to avoid contact with North Korean forces or direct military operations.
In addition, considering that the United States and other "military powers" have entered China's territory under the pretext of counter-terrorism, China will block its borders and cut off the information network through means such as cyber attacks if diplomatic negotiations cannot solve the problem.
Among the countries that are likely to trigger a border crisis, the document also refers to Japan as "hope to become a 'normal country'."
10 times more refugees in Europe
If you want to understand why China is worried about North Korean refugees, just look at the EU's response to Syrian refugees and multiply the number of refugees by 10.
From January to July 2015, 340,000 refugees flooded into Europe, which almost stopped.
Unlike European refugees, who carry suitcases, tents, iPhones, MP3s, and luggage all the time, taking selfies from time to time is different from the North Korean refugees who may influx into the future.
South Korean scholars have predicted the scale and route of North Korean residents' flight under the collapse of the regime. Among them, there are about 470,000 refugees who fled to China across borders, ranking first among countries.
Korean scholars refer to the precedents of the Korean War in 1950 and the reunification of Germany in 1990, and start with the composition and geographic characteristics of North Korea to study and judge the number of North Korean refugees.
According to research, as of October 1990, the official reunification of East Germany to West Germany reached 430,000, accounting for 2.6% of the total population of East Germany. At that time, the economic gap between East and West was not large. Judging from the current economic gap between North Korea and South Korea, the rate of refugees when North Korea collapses is higher than on the eve of German reunification.
As for the refugees generated during the Korean War, it can be roughly divided into two parts. In the first month after the outbreak of the war on June 25, 1950, the first wave of refugees was generated, mainly by Korean residents fleeing south in places such as Seoul (now Seoul). From the end of 1950 to the beginning of 1951, the "United Nations Army" led by the U.S. Army retreated to the south of the "38th Front" under the joint attack of the Chinese People's Volunteers and the Korean People's Army. In the process, a second wave of refugees was generated. According to statistics, about 890,000 Korean refugees who are willing to stay in the north fled to South Korea, which is about 9% of the total population of North Korea before the war (9.5 million). Most of these people chose to flee to relatively safe South Korea because of avoiding US air strikes or direct engagement between the two armies.
To predict the number of people fleeing, domestic conditions in North Korea need to be considered. North Korea conducts a composition survey of its residents to isolate people at the source that may endanger system stability.
According to the information held by South Korea, based on the composition survey, North Korea divided all nationals into 51 classes of 3 classes. This type of classification determines the differences in citizenship in school, employment, food, clothing, housing, etc. Among the three classes, 5.94 million people (the "dominant class") (also known as the "dominant class") account for 28% of the total population, 9.54 million (45%) the "shake class" (also known as the "basic class"), and " The "hostile class" (also known as the "complex layer") was 5.73 million (27%).
The "hostile class" is the person most interested in escaping because he cannot benefit from the current system of North Korea. Except for the old, the weak, the disabled and their families, there are about 3.5 million people in the "hostile class". However, considering the tight control of the escape route by the DPRK, not everyone dares to take risks.
South Korea predicts that about 700,000 people (20% of the 3.5 million "hostile class") in North Korea will resolutely "broke the North." A few years ago, the current population of North Korea submitted to the UN Food Programme was 24 million. Except for nearly 6 million North Korean "core classes" will not escape during the great changes, 700,000 determined escapees account for 3% of the total population. .
The escape routes of North Korean refugees do not all run through the border or "military demarcation line", because 70% of North Korea is mountainous, with an average altitude of 440 meters, and roads and railways can only be established between mountains. Therefore, if North Koreans want to flee to Northeast China or South Korea to the south of the "military demarcation line", they can only use roads and railways connecting the north and the south.
There are highways and railways in western, central and eastern Korea. In the west, there is the No. 1 highway from Seoul to Xinyiju, the Pingyang expressway constructed from Pyongyang to Kaesong after the 1953 truce, and the railway has the Jingyi line from Seoul to Xinyiju. In the central part, there is the No. 3 road from Yeongguk-do to Guksan in Gyeonggi Province, and No. 43 to Yeok-eup in Yeong-gu, and the Gyeongwon line from Seoul to Wonsan. In the east, there is Highway 7 from Gangneung to Yuanshan, Highway 31 from Lindu to Xinshanshan, and the railway has the Tokai Line.
According to the North Korean and Korean agreements, Highway 1 in the west, Jingyi Line Railway, and Highway 7 in the east are all connected. When North Korea collapses, North Korean refugees are likely to use the above roads and railways to escape, and those who want to escape through these paths must be nearby residents.
Therefore, the residents of North Korea ’s Yellow Sea, who live near the military demarcation line, will cross the military demarcation line and go south instead of fleeing to China via Pyongyang, Cijiang Road, and Yalu River. Many people fleeing to China via the Yalu River are also residents of North Korea's North Pyeongan, Liangjiang Road, Cijiang Road, and North Hamgyong Road living on the North Korean-Chinese border.
Depending on North Korea's terrain, North Korean residents can escape by land and sea.
The land route includes fleeing to the borders of China, Russia, and Russia, crossing the military demarcation line, and entering Korea.
Sea routes include those who fled to Japan and South Korea by sea. The selection of North Koreans who fled to Japan by sea is limited to fresh overseas Japanese and their relatives in Japan and South Korea and their relatives who have been returned to North Korea in the past few decades. May be residents of the east and west coasts of North Korea.
It is speculated that if the "hostile class" of North Korea's Liudaoyi city north of the Pingyuan Expressway is tentatively designated as refugees who may flee to China, the number will be about 470,000. When the North Korean government's control was weak, about 90,000 people fled, and when the control failed, the remaining 380,000 people would flee.
North Koreans who fled to South Korea across the military demarcation line mainly came from the "hostile class" living in Sandaoyi City, south of the Pingyuan Expressway, with about 200,000 people. The North Korean refugees who escaped the sea mainly depended on the transport capacity of their fishing vessels. It is estimated that 11,000 refugees fled from the Yellow Sea to China or South Korea using 270 fishing boats, and about 7,600 people fled from the Sea of Japan to South Korea or Japan using 190 fishing boats.
Based on the above estimates, when North Korea collapsed, 470,000 of the 700,000 refugees fled to China, 9,000 fled to Russia, 3,600 fled to Japan, and 200,000 fled to South Korea across the land military demarcation line. There are 15,000 in South Korea. For China and South Korea, the influx of refugees of this size is undoubtedly a disaster.
In addition, Chinese scholars are more worried that when external pressure is great, North Korea may counter sanctions, turn the pressure on China, drive millions of refugees to China, and create disaster for China.
这是基于中越边境的历史判断的,越南为缓解国内压力,曾驱赶50万难民到中国,此后,这些50万难民生子、吃住行、工作,给中国增添了不少压力。
黄南

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