Millennium Tongzhou vitality north stream
July 7th Love
Right now, artificial intelligence seems to be triggering a technological revolution in every corner of the world, and the financial field, which already has a lot of data, is one of its best application scenarios. Looking back at 2016, the concept of smart investment consultants has been speculatively heated, but under the tide, it also has its own difficulties. Smart investors, knowing themselves and knowing one another, effective grasp of weaknesses may be the first step to effectively respond to risks.
Fintech seems to be an excellent vocabulary maker: P2P, blockchain ... Each vocabulary has the ability to set off waves of public opinion. Its latest achievement is-intelligent investment advisor.
Similar to blockchains, smart investment consulting is not a new thing. As early as 2008, the first company specializing in smart investment consulting appeared in the United States. At present, several well-known smart investment consulting platforms such as Wealthfront, Betterment, Personal Capita have emerged.
The domestic situation is even more lively. CreditEase Wealth, Blue Ocean Wealth, Wealth Management Cube, Mi Cai and many other fintech companies are pouring into this seemingly magical field. According to data from Yingcan Consulting, more than 20 Internet financial platforms and fintech companies in China have launched intelligent investment advisory services. In addition, banks are not far behind. The author has learned recently that on December 6, this year, China Merchants Bank officially launched the intelligent investment advisory system "Capricorn Investment" in China Merchants Bank APP5.0.
The magical performance of AlphaGo's defeat of Li Shishi at the beginning of the year has made countless "little leeks" fantasies: Since the robot is already so intelligent, can he beat Buffett? Is it possible to make steady profits without investing in artificial intelligence? Why should banks follow the "trend" and enter the field of intelligent investment consulting? In the hustle and bustle, in fact, lost.
Robot Wars Buffett?
What is intelligent investment advisor? In short, intelligent investment consultants-the former is about technology, while the latter is business.
From a technical perspective, Intelligent Investment Advisors introduced big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies into the securities investment advisory business, turning traditional one-to-one services into large-scale reproducible services, thereby lowering the threshold and allowing the middle class and even ordinary people. You can enjoy the high technical requirements of the platform.
From a business perspective, the essence of smart investment advisory is an investment consulting business. It needs to analyze the user's risk tolerance, provide a series of financial products with different ratios that meet user risk and return requirements, and diversify customer funds into funds, stocks, debt, For fixed-income products and other subjects, employees and institutions must have corresponding qualifications and licenses.
According to the report of China Merchants Securities, the typical intelligent investment advisory service process mainly includes the following steps:
1) Customer portrait: evaluate the customer's risk tolerance and investment objectives;
2) Portfolio configuration: the system recommends personalized portfolios from alternative asset pools based on user risk preferences;
3) Customer funds custody: Customer funds are transferred to third-party custody;
4) Transaction execution: The system issues trading instructions on behalf of clients to buy and sell assets;
5) Portfolio rebalancing: Users regularly check the asset portfolio, and the platform monitors and adjusts positions in real time according to market conditions and changes in user needs;
6) The platform collects corresponding management fees.
Among them, the operation ability of customer portraits, portfolio allocation and portfolio rebalancing determines the quality of intelligent investment advisory products to a certain extent.
In general, compared with traditional investment and wealth management services, smart investment advisory has several advantages:
1. Reduce the service cost of investment and wealth management;
2. Improve the efficiency of investment advisory services, relatively transparent information, and diversify investment risks;
3. To avoid the emotional influence of investors, the robot strictly implements the preset strategy.
From the United States to China
The United States is the birthplace of smart investment advisory, while China is an apprentice in the field of quantitative investment. Chinese innovators are gradually trying new ways of playing in the learning process.
An industry insider revealed that companies such as Wealthfront, Betterment, and Future Advisor used to be imitated by many domestic intelligent investment and consulting firms, but due to differences in investment environments such as the number of ETF products, domestic platforms will “inevitably have no future if they copy the US model ".
ETF is an open-ended stock fund that tracks market indexes and can be freely traded on the stock exchange. After the purchase, ETF is equivalent to buying all the constituent stocks of the index, and its stable return is its biggest feature. Therefore, it has also become the main investment target of the United States Intelligent Investment Advisory.
Taking Wealthfront as an example, it selected 11 types of ETFs, including U.S. stocks, other developed country stocks, and emerging market stocks, to diversify its investment portfolio, reduce risks, and achieve stable returns.
The "Geek Capital Theory" once wrote that "intelligent investment advisors in the United States do not actually need black technology to outperform the market, but more to reduce and avoid unnecessary costs. According to Welthfront, customers can earn more (mainly On the premise of saving 4.6%, an annual management fee of 0.25% is obviously taken for granted. "
Netease mumu simulator
Several domestic platforms have chosen this path. Take Credit Suisse's investment rice RA as an example. Its current investment is in liquid US dollar ETF products, including tracking the United States, China and other developed and developing countries. Stock, bond, real estate market and other related indexes. However, due to foreign exchange control reasons, Tomi RA Smart limited the RMB investment amount to 50,000 US dollars.
There are also ETF products in China. Why not choose domestic products as the main investment target? The first reason is that China's index investment is scarce. According to wind data, taking the main investment target ETF products of the United States Intelligent Investment Advisory as an example, in June 2016, China's listed ETFs totaled 130, with a cumulative asset size of 472.9 billion yuan. Correspondingly, there were nearly 1,600 ETFs in the U.S. market during the same period, and the total scale of assets under management was 2.15 trillion US dollars.
In this case, domestic public offering funds have become the main goal of local intelligent investment advisory products to achieve the purpose of deployment. Public information shows that China has more than 3,400 public funds, covering basic assets, including domestic and overseas stocks, bonds, commodities, gold, crude oil, etc. Coupled with the transparency of public fund transactions, strict management, timely disclosure of net worth, and a particularly low starting point. Compared with private equity and trusts, it is more suitable as an investment choice for smart investment advisory products.
However, this also brings a problem. Compared with the "laissez-faire" ETF, the active management of public funds as the investment target will bring a greater test of the investment capacity of intelligent investment advisors.
High Yield Myth
Similar to other artificial intelligence verticals, the performance of intelligent investment advisors also depends on the blessings of both algorithms and data. But in the field of intelligent investment consulting, the algorithm is important, but the data and experience on the investment side are more critical.
But the data on the investment side is not easily accessible. Taking the widely selected public offering funds in the smart investment advisory market as an example, Wang Hongdong, assistant general manager of the wealth management department of China Merchants Bank, believes that there is a high barrier to data accumulation for public offering funds .
According to Wang Hongdong's analysis, the public offering fund has a two-tier structure, with one layer of basic assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, and another layer of fund managers and fund managers—the two layers of structure correspond to two layers of data, respectively.
The first layer of data is the basic income data of financial products. This data is public on the market and the amount of calculation is large enough to be used for machine training. The second layer of data is unstructured data, such as data for fund managers and fund companies. . The public data in this regard are only basic data such as capital and registration information, and data for unstructured fund managers are difficult to obtain.
The fund portfolio is not only a calculation of structured data, but more importantly, the collection, collation, extraction and description of unstructured data.
In Wang Hongdong's view, as a powerful public and private sales organization, China Merchants Bank's long-term accumulation of such data is the advantage of Capricorn and other similar products.
In this case, can startups lacking transaction data and investment experience play the role of true smart investment advisors?
The director of the Banking Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that at present, the performance of most intelligent investment advisory products on the investment side is still controversial in the industry. Some people in the industry bluntly told the author: "How do some people who have no data and no customers do intelligent investment consulting, and if they do not have data in their models, how can they be of a standard?"
Perhaps in order to attract users, many Chinese smart investment startup teams emphasize high yields and attribute it to artificial intelligence that seems to be omnipotent. In an interview, Dong Ximiao, executive dean of Hengfeng Bank Research Institute, said that this high-yield myth is likely to be marketing traps and even fraudulent activities.
Liu Jialong, president of China Merchants Bank's retail finance headquarters, told the author, "Twenty years of gold in the banking industry can be confirmed to have ended, and generally this year can be considered the first year of the big explosion of artificial intelligence in the public cognitive field. In this process, artificial intelligence is very large. The application will be in the financial field. In this process, we feel that the only realistic path is the integration of people + artificial intelligence. But we do not try to promote artificial intelligence to cover everything. "
Regulation is coming
At the same time, there are still some P2P companies that are in urgent need of transformation. Some people in the banking industry pointed out that many Internet financial platforms are currently undergoing transformation. Some companies use smart investment advisors as a safe haven, and even use this to cover up their self-built capital pools and obscure the whereabouts of funds.
Not long ago, a report from the China Securities Journal said that people close to the regulatory authorities revealed that in the face of the mixed situation of intelligent investment advisors, relevant departments are studying to regulate their management through a license system. Compared with innovative financial companies, large and medium-sized fund companies and asset management institutions may obtain licenses through relatively simple procedures. The industry believes that a large number of non-compliant smart investment advisory companies will be eliminated.
This is on the track of the development of countless innovative concepts, the so-called "barbaric growth, standardized development." For start-ups that are not yet complete, this is a moment of life and death; but for mainstream "players" including China Merchants Bank, supervision is actually an opportunity to regulate the industry.
At this point, you may be able to answer the question at the beginning of the article. The robot cannot do everything. He can't beat Buffett, but it is very likely that it will win you-provided that the robot you choose is reliable enough.
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Xu Haijian (FortuneRadio)