The prospects can be viewed in stages. Personally, it is suggested that every five years from 2015 onwards.
The first stage of high subsidy era (2015-2020)
1. The subsidy mechanism for new energy vehicles has a maximum decline of 10% _Phoenix Automotive
2. Wangang: New energy subsidy policy will be phased out in 2020
3. New energy vehicle subsidies will be withdrawn in 2020
After dividing the phases, we can subdivide into several aspects to see:
1. Policy: It is not difficult to see from the above materials that the direction of national policy is that the country cannot always pay for the high cost of new energy vehicles. The state's high and new energy subsidy policy actually started in 2013. If the plan formulated by the Ministry of Science and Technology and the new energy vehicle subsidy will be withdrawn in 2020, the country has given domestic car companies more than six years to reduce the cost of new energy vehicles. So if the policy is withdrawn in 2020, Whether the domestic new energy automobile industry can survive depends entirely on the cost control capabilities and brand premium capabilities of the companies in the industry. As for whether it can maintain the rapid development momentum? Personally, I think it is unlikely that foreign auto companies will develop new energy vehicles at the same time. After all, subsidies will be eliminated in 2020, and they will face direct competition from imported new energy vehicles or mature joint venture new energy vehicles.
2. Market purchasing power: At present, domestic first-tier cities have basically restricted vehicle purchases. Between 2015 and 2020, I believe that second- and third-tier cities will also comprehensively cover the purchase restriction policies and even extend to some fourth-tier cities. Although new energy vehicles are exempt from purchase Expenses such as taxes, license prices, and considerable subsidy prices will be very considerable compared to fuel vehicles in purchase-restricted cities, but it does not mean that there will be no market competition with fuel vehicles. Used car replacement is one type, and it is more cost-effective to buy. High-fuel vehicles, except for Beijing (the license does not auction with a low probability of being auctioned) and Shanghai (the average auction price of licenses is about 75,000 with a low probability of being auctioned) are two more extreme market environments. At around 20,000 and the chance of lottery is high, in addition to Beijing and Shanghai, fuel vehicles can actually compete with new energy vehicles, and there is a serious problem with new energy indicators. The indicators are scrapped with the vehicle. After scrapping, new energy indicators can also be extracted. By 2013, the first batch of new energy vehicles under the index of 600,000 kilometers will be scrapped. The policy is not yet clear, and the government is also issuing a small number of fuel vehicle indicators at the same time. The new energy indicators that have been scrapped with the vehicle for many years will actually be compressed by the fuel vehicle indicators that can be replaced by old vehicles. After all, the capacity of urban transportation is There are limits, when the new energy index is very likely to be difficult to find on the first! Existing license holders of gasoline vehicles will not consider new energy vehicles after their vehicles are discarded. Due to the pressure of public opinion, it is unlikely that the purchase tax of fuel vehicles will be significantly increased in the next five years. The key to the success of the new energy vehicle industry is to reduce costs or improve brand premium capabilities.
Citation: new rules for the number of years of car scrapping will be implemented without restrictions on private cars in May
3. Infrastructure: At present, there are basically three charging stations in the State Grid, China Southern Power Grid, and Tesla. However, China Southern Power Grid has not made significant progress in building charging stations in Guangdong only between 2010 and 2011. , State Grid also cancelled further charging station construction plans after plans to build charging stations along the Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai Expressway, and Qingyin Expressway (Source: State grid charging station construction speed-up This year, it is planned to cover three expressways State Grid, South China China ’s large-scale "exit" construction of electric vehicle charging facilities said that the State Grid abandoned the carpet-type charging station or to give way to private capital), while local governments are currently building charging stations for their new energy bus systems, and these charging stations are naturally impossible Open to the public, and still insisting on laying a large area of charging stations is Tesla, a foreign company, but unfortunately due to different standards, Tesla charging stations can only be used for models under its brand, in 2014 By the end of the year, Tesla's 75-minute full 480 km supercharging station has built 50 nationwide, and there are more than 700 slow-speed purposes. charging station
Domestic brands and joint venture brands still set up charging stations in their 4S stores that specialize in selling new energy vehicles. However, if they cannot start building their own charging network, they can only say that they will be self-bound in the future. It is certain that the price of parking spaces is The future will become more and more expensive, and it will become more and more difficult to build a charging network. To do a good job in the new energy industry, you still need to learn from Tesla, change the manufacturing concept and switch to the two-pronged concept of manufacturing and service. You cannot wait for the country to take responsibility. Only by building a charging network can we seize the commanding heights of the market.
Post-secondary subsidy era (2020-2025)
1.Policy and infrastructure: The policy from 2020 to 2025 is currently unknown, and the country will agree with Germany on a common charging standard for infrastructure, but will there be a large number of charging facilities or existing charging facilities after the specific standards are implemented? Tesla's charging stations built by foreign companies are also unclear, but we can talk about the purchasing power of the market first.
2. Market purchasing power: By then, the indicators of first- and second-tier cities will be saturated, and the market focus will be on third- and fourth-tier cities. The economic strength of third- and fourth-tier cities is not as good as that of first- and second-tier cities. The pressure is not great. Except for a few restricted third- and fourth-tier cities, new energy vehicles face the three-way siege of fuel vehicles, joint venture new energy vehicles, and imported new energy vehicles in third and fourth tier cities. The biggest competitor is undoubtedly fuel vehicles. There is a more demanding requirement for new energy vehicles to reduce costs. To achieve the price-performance ratio of fuel-fuel vehicles of the same level, especially in terms of range, it is the most difficult to overcome. New energy vehicle companies can only supply new energy vehicles due to the narrowing of new energy indicators. High-quality and high-performance new energy vehicles enter the direct competition without subsidy with imported high-performance new energy vehicles in order to obtain profits, so to survive at this stage, in addition to enhancing cost control capabilities and brand premium capabilities, it also requires technical A major breakthrough.